AI Copper Demand May Triple by 2028, Trafigura Analysis

Hyperscaler investment plans for AI infrastructure could drive copper demand to as much as 3 million metric tons by 2028, tripling current usage levels, according to commodity trading giant Trafigura Group. The forecast, officially released on October 20, 2026, highlights how artificial intelligence buildouts are reshaping industrial metals markets and creating unprecedented demand for essential wiring materials.

Projected Demand Scenarios

Henry Van, Trafigura's head of industrial metals analysis, presented two distinct scenarios at Bloomberg's 2026 Base Metals event in London. The bullish case assumes full execution of announced hyperscaler projects, reaching 2.5 to 3 million metric tons of copper demand in 2028. This represents a dramatic increase from the estimated 1 million tons consumed by AI infrastructure in 2026.

Market skepticism about full project completion suggests a more conservative scenario. Under this outlook, AI-related copper demand would reach approximately 1.6 million tons in 2028, still reflecting 60% growth over two years. Van clarified that the higher estimate is not Trafigura's base case but rather what current investment plans mathematically imply.

Data Center Build-Out Impact

The surge in large-scale cloud computing and data center construction has become a significant driver of copper consumption. Trafigura chief economist Saad Rahim noted at a London Metal Exchange seminar that without AI infrastructure growth, global copper demand would actually decline in 2026. While data centers remain a relatively small portion of total copper usage, their rapid expansion rate makes them a critical marginal demand source.

According to Van, companies building AI data centers demonstrate complete price insensitivity. "They do not care about the price of copper," he stated, explaining why record-high metal prices have not dampened infrastructure investment. This behavior contrasts sharply with traditional industrial buyers who adjust consumption based on cost fluctuations.

Market Dynamics and Supply Response

Copper futures have rallied to historic levels in 2026, driven by multiple factors including:

• Surge of shipments to the United States in anticipation of tariffs
• Supply shortages in other global markets
• Growing electrification trends worldwide
• Accelerating AI infrastructure deployment

Benchmark copper futures traded at $14,361 per ton on the London Metal Exchange as of midday October 20, 2026, slightly below the all-time high of $14,875 reached in September 2026. These elevated prices are expected to stimulate a 2 million-ton increase in global copper supply during 2027, Van indicated.

Release Date and Industry Implications

Trafigura officially released this analysis on October 20, 2026, during Bloomberg's Base Metals conference in London. The timing coincides with growing investor and industry scrutiny of AI infrastructure's material requirements and sustainability implications.

Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, recently set European copper premiums at a record $350 per ton, reflecting tight market conditions. Meanwhile, some traders are growing cautious about the copper bull market, particularly given uncertainty around whether anticipated tariffs will materialize as expected.

What This Means

The projected tripling of AI-related copper demand underscores how artificial intelligence is creating ripple effects far beyond software and semiconductors. As hyperscalers race to build computing capacity for advanced AI models, their infrastructure requirements are fundamentally reshaping commodity markets. Whether demand reaches the bullish 3 million ton scenario or the conservative 1.6 million ton forecast, the AI buildout represents a structural shift in industrial metals consumption. Companies throughout the AI supply chain must now account for commodity exposure and potential bottlenecks in materials sourcing as part of their infrastructure planning.